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My six points and an extra point for the NFL season

Sam Hitchcock

One of my favorite annual columns comes before each sports season when analysts do scattered predictions on the upcoming season. Then six months later, they can look back and take heat for looking like a moron or boast about their triumphs. Without further adieu, these are my NFL 2010-11 bold predictions …

 

1. The four teams that made it to their conference championships (Saints, Vikings, Colts and Jets) will not make it to the Super Bowl due to the increasing depth and momentum of their adversaries, as well as their own aging superstars.

The Saints, while able to keep their championship core somewhat intact (losing only defensive end Charles Grant and linebacker Scott Fujita), will be subject to the "Massive Target On Their Backs Syndrome." Their offense that was so explosive last year is returning and poised to put up big numbers again. However, Drew Brees was a statistical phenomenon, recording a 109.6 passer rating and shredding the NFC. To expect him to repeat that performance in a league that thrives on parity is unreasonable.

On the subject of parity, the NFL is predicated on a team benefiting from the right bounces. New Orleans' defense last year thrived on capitalizing on other teams' mistakes, the crowning example being Tracey Porter's "pick six" to seal Super Bowl XLIV. But word has it that Darren Sharper, leading the Saints with nine interceptions in 2009 (three of which he returned for touchdowns), is on his way out at the age of 34. He likely will be replaced by young upstart Malcolm Jenkins who, while glimmering with potential, has a tall order even to get close to matching Sharper's previous season.

The Saints were also extraordinarily fortunate with injuries. Drew Brees and his receiving corps were able to remain intact and relatively healthy for the entire season and playoffs.

As for the Colts, decreased production from Reggie Wayne, a nearly nonexistent running game (sorry Joseph Addai) and the inevitable Bob Sanders' injury will put all the pressure on Peyton Manning. Manning will be 34 this year and it is unreasonable to think he can carry the Colts through the increasingly formidable AFC.

Brett Favre and the Vikings will finally be handcuffed by the karma police, and the New York Jets will rue the day they agreed to do HBO's Hard Knocks, exposing General Manager Mike Tannenbaum for what he is, a dunce.

 

2. This would be a pretty lame column if I did not make a preseason Super Bowl prediction. So my preseason pick goes to … Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens.

Tony Romo and Joe Flacco will both make the leap to elite quarterback status this year, propelling them past regular season stars to postseason warriors. Also, I love the Ravens' acquisition of Anquain Boldin, along with their running back tandem of Ray Rice (who is going to have one hell of a year) and Willis McGahee.

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As for the Cowboys, Wade Phillips and Tony Romo have been tabbed as the most recent athlete and coach who cannot win the big game. Fortunately, these past couple of years have been tremendous for high profile athletes finally ridding themselves of the championship monkey on their backs (Peyton Manning winning a Super Bowl, Alex Rodriguez contributing to a New York Yankee World Series, Marian Hossa finally winning the Stanley Cup and LeBron James finally winning a championship next year. Oh, sorry Cavs fans, too soon?).

Back to the Cowboys, who are literally teeming with dynamic players capable of game-changing plays — Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Martellus Bennett and Patrick Crayton as Romo's receiving targets, the absurd amount of depth at running back (Barber, Choice, Jones) and Mike Jenkins, Keith Brookings, DeMarcus Ware and Terrence Newman all determined and motivated to have home field advantage in the Super Bowl — I see Dallas finally pushing through.

 

3. Shonn Greene, barring injury, will run for close to 1,500 yards and more than 10 touchdowns.

No Thomas Jones, no Leon Washington and the Jets added an over-the-hill running back. Sure, LaDainian Tomlinson might be "motivated," but once running backs lose what got them there, their explosiveness, it almost never returns. When Greene carried the ball last year, he showed tremendous agility and power, and knowing Rex Ryan's "pound them in the face" football, Greene should really turn some heads. I actually wrote this before my fantasy football draft and still was not able to nab him, so I may be eating my own words.

 

4. Jimmy Clausen will end up being better than Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.

Sam Bradford will be a bust for two reasons. First, he will undergo the "David Carr" syndrome this season. Anyone who watched the Minnesota Vikings play the St. Louis Rams in their first preseason game will know what I am talking about. With little talent (his best target is, gulp, Donnie Avery) and a weak offensive line, poor Bradford is going to suffer a colossal beating this year, one that he rarely received in a game when he was behind center at Oklahoma. Poor David Carr was never able to pick up the pieces, and I see young Bradford undergoing a similar fate.

Second, Oklahoma's bountiful talent gave Bradford the opportunity to torch cupcakes like Baylor and Iowa State yearly, along with putting him into pass schemes where he rarely could be overwhelmed. In games where he faced pro talent (for example, Texas), he was shockingly underwhelming.

As for Tebow, much to Denver fans' chagrin, I just do not see him fitting as a prototype NFL quarterback. Very few pro quarterbacks who do not fit the traditional mold succeed. His throwing mechanics are still poor, despite the ongoing project of re-teaching him how to throw. I think Tebow relied too much on his massive bulldozing run style (which already has gotten him into trouble during the preseason) to get him out of pressure situations in college.

As for Clausen, he throws a very pretty ball and he is a prototype drop back quarterback. I think John Fox will bring him along nicely. Look for his career to blossom down the road, as the incumbent, Matt Moore, leads me to my next prediction.

 

5. Carolina quarterback Matt Moore and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb will have much better years than everyone is anticipating.

Kevin Kolb made a little less than a 100 throws last year. However, it was evident to me and many others who watched him that he was making the right reads, along with showing maturation far beyond his recorded playing experience. Perhaps by waiting his turn for Donovan McNabb, he was able to develop some of the keen sensibilities that have made McNabb such a fine pro. Now the shoe is on the other foot, as McNabb got traded to Washington and Kolb seems ready to take the reigns. Also, it does not hurt having possibly the most explosive receiving corps in the game, with speedsters like DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin tearing down the sidelines. Coach Andy Reid never seems very interested in running the ball, so Kolb will get many repetitions to perfect his craft.

As for Matt Moore, he played five games in 2009, went 4-1 as a starter and found chemistry with receiver Steve Smith almost immediately. Coach John Fox and the Panthers organization had been too long riding the coattails of Delhomme's one hit wonder Super Bowl run, and by finally moving on they will find new explosiveness in their offense. And why not? Their running attack, consisting of D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, is as good as anyone's. Their defense may not be very good, especially now that Julius Peppers is a Chicago Bear, but Panthers fans will at least get to enjoy a lot of points this year.

 

6. This year will be the year when fans will start saying, "Is Adrian Peterson really as good as we hyped him to be?"

He makes Entourage appearances, he is in cool commercials where his skin morphs into a football and makes excellent highlight videos. People are rooting for Adrian "All Day" Peterson to be what everyone thought he would be after his rookie season, the second coming of Eric Dickerson. But if you look at this statistics, there are a couple of disturbing trends.

In Adrian Peterson's rookie season he had 238 rushing attempts in 14 games and while occasionally fumbling the football was able to limit himself to four fumbles (losing three of them). While statistically his second season was monstrous, it gave way to what has become the talented running back's Achilles heel. He fumbled the ball nine times in 2008, losing possession of it four times. Last season he fumbled it six times, but recovered it back only once. So, each year he has lost possession of the football one more time, a large concern for a Super Bowl contending team like the Minnesota Vikings.

Then, perhaps the most indicative is the rushing average. His rookie season he was an unfathomable 5.6 yards per attempt. But his second year it dropped to 4.8, then last year fell to 4.4. He rushed for 42 yards more last season than his rookie season, which sounds good, except that he had 86 more rushing attempts. What is more troubling is last year Minnesota had one of the top three quarterbacks in the league, who finally opened up their passing offense, which theoretically should have made Peterson unstoppable. But it did not.

Playing devil's advocate, Peterson scored more touchdowns last year than he ever had before, but at the same time he had more red zone opportunities. I see a red flag, which is unsettling, especially with the injury bug so prevalent in Minnesota's receiving corps.

 

7. The Bengals will strike gold with third round pick Jordan Shipley.

Shipley definitely gets the "Percy Harvin Award" for a guy who, when I watched him in college, I knew was going to be a bona fide pro. Every time he touched the ball for the University of Texas, he would make a play. In fact, I had some prescient moments with both Harvin and Shipley. As I remember saying to my dad the previous year when the University of Florida was in the title game, "Watch for Percy Harvin, not Tebow, as he will decide this game" (spoiler alert: he did). Then the next year, I told Papa Hitchcock, when Texas faced Alabama, "If Texas is winning this game, it is on Shipley's back." Of course, Colt McCoy got hurt, but Shipley still managed to catch two touchdown balls and keep it interesting.

Simply put, not all intangibles show up at the combine. Shipley possesses the receiving skill that could have him, at worst, being the next Antwain Randal El, and, at best, Wes Welker. Watch for him to make some great plays this year, even in his rookie season.

 


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