Lately, there have been many reports, essays and articles in various publications regarding the rise of China as the world's next superpower. Political scientists and ordinary Americans alike seem giddy with excitement over the concept that China, not America, may be the country that dominates the next century. Well, as intriguing as the idea is, I'm not buying it.
Proponents for China as a world superpower seem blissfully unaware of the truth regarding the People's Republic of China as well as the various components of being a superpower. For the purposes of my argument, I will define a global superpower as a country that dominates other nations around it economically, politically and ideologically. It seems that those who advocate for China are focusing heavily on the first of those three requirements, economics, while completely ignoring political and ideological influence. These two are arguably the most important factors in becoming a superpower, and two things China simply does not have.
Economics is the main reason China is cited as a future world power. China's economy has managed to boom in the past several decades and many economists believe it will surpass the United States in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. However, the size of its economy doesn't automatically make China a global power. Yes, China has a massive economy. However, it also has a massive population, more than 1.3 billion people in 2010, more than four times the population of America.
When viewed on a per capita basis, China has the profile of a developing country. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China's per capita nominal GDP was only $4,283 in 2010 compared to America's $47,132. China's economy overall may rival America's, but its per capita GDP places it among the ranks of countries like Iran, Angola and El Salvador. Yes, China has made large strides, but it has a long way to go in giving its citizens a similar quality of life to that enjoyed by people in more developed nations. Many seem to forget that China is the world's largest communist country and is trying desperately to hold on to this outdated system. Until China pursues democratic reforms, attempts to correct its human rights record and improves freedom of speech for its citizens, it won't become a world power. How can a country become a world power when much of its interaction with the outside world is filtered by censors? For example, this article would almost surely be censored in China for proposing democratic reforms.
A country becomes a superpower by earning influence from its neighbors and within its region. Many Asian countries desire economic interaction with China, but that's where the interest stops. Few of China's Asian neighbors seek political partnerships with the country. Asia is currently a very democratic region. India and Indonesia, the second and fourth most populous countries respectively, as well as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are all successful and thriving democracies. Almost all of these countries seek to emulate the democratic values of developed countries, not China's outdated communist system.
Until China pursues political reform, it will not be earning much respect regarding politics or foreign affairs. This likely will become a problem for China in the future. Historically, as the working class becomes larger and gains more wealth, they seek democratic reforms and protection for their wealth. If China continues growing at the rate it is, I foresee an inevitable demand by the Chinese people for an improved democracy. China is becoming increasingly important in the global economy and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. However, I disagree with claims that this will be the "decade of the dragon."
Improving the standard of living for all Chinese citizens by providing democracy and human rights should be a major priority for the Chinese government. Once this is achieved, China could become a global power in the future, but I'm not going to start learning Mandarin just yet.
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