2008 Woodie Awards
Private dialogues can ease Chinese, regional tensions
Morgan Riedl
Issue date: 3/25/08 Section: OpEd Page
China is walking a very familiar line. Policing unrest at home while fielding charges from abroad of human rights violations. It is no stranger to the complexity of playing both sides. Past experience has taught it that it can cross the line without suffering significant consequences. And the world seems poised to let China do just that again. One should not begrudge China its ability to brush off international criticism on the few occasions that states dare to raise their voices. In the same manner that its economic might silences meaningful condemnation, America's own economic and military superiority prevents the world from holding any real sway over its policy decisions. This parallel offers insight into possible ways of addressing the issue of Tibet.
First, no amount of public outcry from around the world will be enough to compel China to change its position. Even words backed with the threat of forceful action would be ill-advised. Given its importance as a trade partner to so many other powerful countries, China is unlikely to find any such threat credible. And indeed, it is highly improbable that any country with the necessary capability would make such a threat, so even if one were to be issued it could be safely assumed to be empty. International criticism has the opposite of its intended effect. Instead of encouraging the offending government to relent, it causes the government to become defensive.
If China were to completely reverse its policy in response to condemnation from abroad, it would face a crisis of faith in spite of any legitimacy gained for its showing of respect for human rights. China, as it understands the consequences, would look weak. Other states-which had previously been hesitant to challenge it and the territories under its own jurisdiction that have been quelled into submission-would seize the opportunity. Since China has no dearth of these conflicts (temporarily on hold but simmering beneath the surface) the prospect is undoubtedly unpalatable.
First, no amount of public outcry from around the world will be enough to compel China to change its position. Even words backed with the threat of forceful action would be ill-advised. Given its importance as a trade partner to so many other powerful countries, China is unlikely to find any such threat credible. And indeed, it is highly improbable that any country with the necessary capability would make such a threat, so even if one were to be issued it could be safely assumed to be empty. International criticism has the opposite of its intended effect. Instead of encouraging the offending government to relent, it causes the government to become defensive.
If China were to completely reverse its policy in response to condemnation from abroad, it would face a crisis of faith in spite of any legitimacy gained for its showing of respect for human rights. China, as it understands the consequences, would look weak. Other states-which had previously been hesitant to challenge it and the territories under its own jurisdiction that have been quelled into submission-would seize the opportunity. Since China has no dearth of these conflicts (temporarily on hold but simmering beneath the surface) the prospect is undoubtedly unpalatable.
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