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Kilroy takes 15th District

By Charlie Turner

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Published: Friday, December 12, 2008

Updated: Sunday, February 14, 2010

After weeks of counting and recounting ballots, the race for the House of Representatives in Ohio's 15th district was called on Sunday for Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

But, while Kilroy has secured her seat for the next two years, nothing is set in stone.

Miami University professor of political science, Bryan Marshall warned that incumbents, especially in the House of Representatives, are very vulnerable in their first couple terms.

"They don't have a lot of power in the institution as freshmen, especially House members, so not having a lot of power, it's tough to get things done that show their doing a lot for their district," Marshall said.

Kilroy won the recently vacated seat by only 2,311 votes after losing the same seat in 2006 by only about 1,000 votes. Her victory comes along with a wave of Democratic wins across the country and especially in Ohio.

When the new congress is sworn-in in January, 10 Democrats and eight republicans will represent Ohio. Currently, seven Democrats and 11 republicans represent the state.

Nathan Burd, executive director of the Franklin County Republican Party, said there has been a demographic shift in the district. In 2000, District 15 had 64,000 registered Democrats and about 119,000 registered republicans. This yeah, the numbers show 209,000 registered Democrats and only 87,000 registered Republicans.

In light of those numbers and Obama's decisive win in the district, "there's no doubt that Franklin County is trending blue," Burd said.

Marshall said while demographic shifts have had an impact, Kilroy may have also benefited from Obama's candidacy-riding the coattails of the presidential election-but won't be able to count on a presidential ticket carrying her in 2010.

"There's not going to be a candidate Obama on the ticket," Marshall said. "So if you have lower turnout and you have some of the people that voted for her during the presidential election stay home, then that could work on the challenger's behalf."

Burd said Kilroy's opponent, state Sen. Steve Stivers, has not made any announcements as to whether or not he will run for the seat in 2010.

"He's an extremely strong candidate," Burd said. "A lot of folks called him possibly the best new candidate on the Republican side. He definitely has a future in the Republican Party."

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